Tuesday, February 06, 2007

Victor Davis Hanson: Mexifornia, Five Years Later

City Journal
Winter 2007

The flood of illegal immigrants into California has made things worse than I foresaw.

In the Spring 2002 issue of City Journal, I wrote an essay about growing up in the central San Joaquin Valley and witnessing firsthand, especially over the last 20 years, the ill effects of illegal immigration (City Journal’s editors chose the title of the piece: “Do We Want Mexifornia?”). Controversy over my blunt assessment of the disaster of illegal immigration from Mexico led to an expanded memoir, Mexifornia, published the following year by Encounter Press.

Mexifornia came out during the ultimately successful campaign to recall California governor Gray Davis in autumn 2003. A popular public gripe was that the embattled governor had appeased both employers and the more radical Hispanic politicians of the California legislature on illegal immigration. And indeed Davis had signed legislation allowing driver’s licenses for illegal aliens that both houses of state government had passed. So it was no wonder that the book sometimes found its way into both the low and high forms of the political debate. On the Internet, a close facsimile of a California driver’s license circulated, with a picture of a Mexican bandit (the gifted actor Alfonso Bedoya of The Treasure of the Sierra Madre), together with a demeaning height (5’4”), weight (“too much”), and sex (“mucho”) given. “Mexifornia” was emblazoned across the top where “California” usually is stamped on the license.








In such a polarized climate, heated debates and several radio interviews followed, often with the query, “Why did you have to write this book?” The Left saw the book’s arguments and its title—Mexifornia was originally a term of approbation used by activists buoyed by California’s changing demography—as unduly harsh to newcomers from Mexico. The Right saw the book as long-overdue attention to a scandal ignored by the mainstream Republican Party.

Fast-forward nearly five years, and the national climate has radically changed, so much so that the arguments of Mexifornia—close the borders, return to the melting pot, offer earned citizenship to most aliens of long residence in exchange for acceptance of English and American culture—seem tame today, if not passé. In 2002, when I wrote the original City Journal essay, no one thought that the U.S. Congress would vote to erect a wall. Today there is rumbling that the signed legislation entails only 700 miles of fencing instead of spanning the entire 1,950-mile border.

Deportation was once an unimaginable response to the problem of the 11 million here illegally. Now its practicality, rather than its morality, appears the keener point of contention. And the concerted effort by Chicano activists to drive from popular parlance the descriptive term “illegal alien” in favor of the politically correct, but imprecise and often misleading “undocumented worker” has largely failed. Similar efforts to demonize opponents of open borders as “anti-immigrant” or “nativist” have had only a marginal effect in stifling debate, as has the deliberate effort to blur illegal and legal immigration. The old utopian talk of a new borderless zone of dual cultures, spreading on both sides of a disappearing boundary, has given way to a reexamination of NAFTA and its facilitation of greater cross-border flows of goods, services—and illegal aliens and drugs.

So why has the controversy over illegal immigration moved so markedly to the right?

We return always to the question of numbers. While it is true that no one knows exactly how many are here illegally from Mexico and Latin America, both sides in the debate often accept as reasonable estimates of 11 to 12 million illegals—with an additional 500,000 to 1 million arriving per year. Given porous borders, such guesses about the number of illegal aliens in the United States are outdated almost as soon as they are published. It is plausible, then, that there may be an additional 3 to 4 million illegal aliens here who were not here when the City Journal “Mexifornia” piece appeared.

The result of such staggering numbers is that aliens now don’t just cluster in the American Southwest but frequently appear at Home Depot parking lots in the Midwest, emergency rooms in New England, and construction sites in the Carolinas, making illegal immigration an American, rather than a mere Californian or Arizonan, concern.

Indeed, we forget how numbers are at the crux of the entire debate over illegal immigration. In the 1970s, perhaps a few million illegals resided in the United States, and their unassimilated presence went largely unnoticed. Most Americans felt that the formidable powers of integration and popular culture would continue to incorporate any distinctive ethnic enclave, as they had so successfully done with the past generations that arrived en masse from Europe, Asia, and Latin America. But when more than 10 million fled Mexico in little over a decade—the great majority poor, without English, job skills, a high school education, and legality—entire apartheid communities in the American Southwest began springing up.

During the heyday of multiculturalism and political correctness in the 1980s, the response of us, the hosts, to this novel challenge was not to insist upon the traditional assimilation of the newcomer but rather to accommodate the illegal alien with official Spanish-language documents, bilingual education, and ethnic boosterism in our media, politics, and education. These responses only encouraged more illegals to come, on the guarantee that their material life could be better and yet their culture unchanged in the United States. We now see the results. Los Angeles is today the second-largest Mexican city in the world; one out of every ten Mexican nationals resides in the United States, the vast majority illegally.

Since Mexifornia appeared, the debate also no longer splits along liberal/conservative, Republican/Democrat, or even white/brown fault lines. Instead, class considerations more often divide Americans on the issue. The majority of middle-class and poor whites, Asians, African-Americans, and Hispanics wish to close the borders. They see few advantages to cheap service labor, since they are not so likely to need it to mow their lawns, watch their kids, or clean their houses. Because the less well-off eat out less often, use hotels infrequently, and don’t periodically remodel their homes, the advantages to the economy of inexpensive, off-the-books illegal-alien labor again are not so apparent.

But the downside surely is apparent. Truck drivers, carpenters, janitors, and gardeners— unlike lawyers, doctors, actors, writers, and professors—correctly feel that their jobs are threatened, or at least their wages lowered, by cheaper rival workers from Oaxaca or Jalisco. And Americans who live in communities where thousands of illegal aliens have arrived en masse more likely lack the money to move when Spanish-speaking students flood the schools and gangs proliferate. Poorer Americans of all ethnic backgrounds take for granted that poverty provides no exemption from mastering English, so they wonder why the same is not true for incoming Mexican nationals. Less than a mile from my home is a former farmhouse whose new owner moved in several stationary Winnebagos, propane tanks, and outdoor cooking facilities—and apparently four or five entire families rent such facilities right outside his back door. Dozens live where a single family used to—a common sight in rural California that reifies illegal immigration in a way that books and essays do not.

The problem with all this is that our now-spurned laws were originally intended to ensure an (admittedly thin) veneer of civilization over innate chaos—roads full of drivers who have passed a minimum test to ensure that they are not a threat to others; single-family residence zoning to ensure that there are adequate sewer, garbage, and water services for all; periodic county inspections to ensure that untethered dogs are licensed and free of disease and that housing is wired and plumbed properly to prevent mayhem; and a consensus on school taxes to ensure that there are enough teachers and classrooms for such sudden spikes in student populations.

All these now-neglected or forgotten rules proved costly to the taxpayer. In my own experience, the slow progress made in rural California since the 1950s of my youth—in which the county inspected our farm’s rural dwellings, eliminated the once-ubiquitous rural outhouse, shut down substandard housing, and fined violators in hopes of providing a uniform humane standard of residence for all rural residents—has been abandoned in just a few years of laissez-faire policy toward illegal aliens. My own neighborhood is reverting to conditions common about 1950, but with the insult of far higher tax rates added to the injury of nonexistent enforcement of once-comprehensive statutes. The government’s attitude at all levels is to punish the dutiful citizen’s misdemeanors while ignoring the alien’s felony, on the logic that the former will at least comply while the latter either cannot or will not.

Fairness about who is allowed into the United States is another issue that reflects class divides—especially when almost 70 percent of all immigrants, legal and illegal, arrive from Mexico alone. Asians, for example, are puzzled as to why their relatives wait years for official approval to enter the United States, while Mexican nationals come across the border illegally, counting on serial amnesties to obtain citizenship.

These class divisions cut both ways, and they help explain the anomaly of the Wall Street Journal op-ed page mandarins echoing the arguments of the elite Chicano studies professors. Both tend to ridicule the far less affluent Minutemen and English-only activists, in part because they do not experience firsthand the problems associated with illegal immigration but instead find millions of aliens grist for their own contrasting agendas. Indeed, every time an alien crosses the border legally, fluent in English and with a high school diploma, the La Raza industry and the corporate farm or construction company alike most likely lose a constituent.

The ripples of September 11—whether seen in the arrests of dozens of potential saboteurs here in America or the terrorist bombings abroad in Madrid and London—remind Americans that their present enemies can do us harm only if they can first somehow enter the United States. Again, it makes little sense to screen tourists, inspect cargo containers, and check the passenger lists of incoming flights, when our border with an untrustworthy Mexico remains porous. While it may be true that the opponents of illegal immigration have used the post–September 11 fear of terrorism to further their own agenda of closing the border with Mexico, they are absolutely correct that presently the best way for jihadist cells to cross into the United States is overland from the south.

Other foreign developments have also steered the debate ever more rightward. In the last decade, the United States has clearly seen the wages of sectarianism and ethnic chauvinism abroad. The unraveling of Yugoslavia into Croatian, Serbian, and Albanian sects followed the Hutu-Tutsi bloodbath in Rwanda. And now almost daily we hear of Pashtun-Tajik-Uzbek hatred among the multiplicity of warring clans in Afghanistan and the daily mayhem among Kurds, Shiites, and Sunnis in Iraq. Why—when we are spending blood and treasure abroad to encourage the melting pot and national unity—would anyone wish to contribute to tribalism or foster the roots of such ethnic separatism here in the United States?

Moreover, all during the 1990s, blue-state America offered up the European Union as the proper postmodern antidote to the United States. But just as we have recoiled from the EU’s statist and undemocratic tendencies—which have resulted in popular dissatisfaction, sluggish economic growth, high unemployment, falling demography, and unsustainable entitlement commitments—so, too, have its unassimilated Muslim minorities served as another canary in the mine. The riots in France, the support for jihadism among Pakistanis in London, and the demands of Islamists in Scandinavia, Germany, and the Netherlands do not encourage Americans to let in more poor Mexican illegal immigrants with loud agendas, or to embrace the multicultural salad bowl over their own distinctive melting pot.

Then there were the April–May 2006 demonstrations here in the United States, when nearly half a million protesters took to the streets of our largest cities, from Chicago to Los Angeles. Previously, naive Americans had considered that their own discussions over border security and immigration were in their own hands. And while Chicano-rights organizations and employer lobbyists were often vehement in their efforts to keep the border open, illegal aliens themselves used to be mostly quiet about our internal legal debates.

In contrast, this spring Americans witnessed millions of illegal aliens who not only were unapologetic about their illegal status but were demanding that their hosts accommodate their own political grievances, from providing driver’s licenses to full amnesty. The largest demonstrations—held on May Day, with thousands of protesters waving Mexican flags and bearing placards depicting the communist insurrectionist Che Guevara—only confirmed to most Americans that illegal immigration was out of control and beginning to become politicized along the lines of Latin American radicalism. I chronicled in Mexifornia the anomaly of angry protesters waving the flag of the country they vehemently did not wish to return to, but now the evening news beamed these images to millions. In short, the radical socialism of Latin America, seething in the angry millions who flocked to support Venezuela’s Hugo Chávez, Bolivia’s Evo Morales, and Mexico’s Andrés López Obrador, had now seemingly been imported into our own largest cities.

Turmoil in areas of Mexico that send many illegal aliens to the United States is especially worrisome. Recently, for example, almost the entire state of Oaxaca was in near-open revolt over efforts to force the resignation of provincial governor Ulises Ruiz. There was widespread lawlessness, vigilantism, and at times the complete breakdown of order. All this feeds the growing perception that illegal aliens increasingly are arriving not merely as economic refugees but as political dissidents who don’t hesitate to take to the streets here to demand social justice, as they did back home.

More important still, Oaxaca’s troubles cast doubt on the conventional wisdom that illegal immigration is a safety valve that allows Mexico critical time to get its house in order. Perhaps the opposite is true: some of the areas, like Oaxaca, that send the most illegal aliens to the United States, still experience the greatest social tensions—in part because of the familial disruption and social chaos that results when adult males flee and depopulated communities consequently become captive to foreign remittances.

Two further issues have persuaded Americans to close the borders: the attitude of the Mexican government and the problems with first-generation native-born children of illegal aliens.

Worker remittances sent back to Mexico now earn it precious American dollars equal to the revenue from 500,000 barrels of daily exported oil. In short, Mexico cannot afford to lose its second-largest source of hard currency and will do almost anything to ensure its continuance. When Mexico City publishes comic books advising its own citizens how best to cross the Rio Grande, Americans take offense. Not only does Mexico brazenly wish to undermine American law to subsidize its own failures, but it also assumes that those who flee northward are among its least educated, departing without much ability to read beyond the comic-book level.

We are also learning not only that Mexico wants its expatriates’ cash—and its nationals lobbying for Mexican interests—once they are safely away from their motherland; we are also discovering that Mexico doesn’t have much concern about the welfare of its citizens abroad in America. The conservative estimate of $15 billion sent home comes always at the expense of low-paid Mexicans toiling here, who must live in impoverished circumstances if they are to send substantial portions of their wages home to Mexico. (And it comes as well at the expense of American taxpayers, providing health-care and food subsidies in efforts to offer a safety net to cash-strapped illegal aliens.) So it is not just that Mexico exports its own citizens, but it does so on the expectation that they are serfs of a sort, who, like the helots of old, surrender much of the earnings of their toil to their distant masters.

But even more grotesquely, in the last five years, the Mexican real-estate market has boomed on the Baja California peninsula. Once Mexico grasped that its own unspoiled coast was highly desirable for wealthy expatriate Americans as a continuation of the prized but crowded Santa Barbara–San Diego seaside corridor, it began to reform its real-estate market, making the necessary changes in property and title law, and it welcomed with open arms cash-laden subdividers looking to come south. This is sound economics, but examine the ethical message: Mexico City will send the United States millions of its own illiterate and poor whom it will neither feed nor provide with even modest housing, but at the same time it welcomes thousands of Americans with cash to build expensive seaside second homes.

Of course, the ultimate solution to the illegal immigration debacle is for Mexican society to bring itself up to the levels of affluence found in the United States by embracing market reforms of the sort we have seen in South Korea, Taiwan, and China. But rarely do Mexican supporters of such globalization, or their sympathetic counterparts in the United States, see the proliferation of a Wal-Mart or Starbucks down south in such terms. Rather, to them American consumerism and investment in Mexico suggest only an owed reciprocity of sentiment: Why should Americans get mad about Mexican illegals coming north when our own crass culture, with its blaring neon signs in English, spreads southward? In such morally equivalent arguments, it is never mentioned that Americanization occurs legally and brings capital, while Mexicanization comes about by illegal means and is driven by poverty.

At the same time, focus has turned more to the U.S.-born children of Mexican illegal immigrants, in whom illegitimacy, school dropout rates, and criminal activity have risen to such levels that no longer can we simply dismiss Mexican immigration as resembling the more problematic but eventually successful Italian model of a century ago. Then, large numbers of southern European Catholics, most without capital and education, arrived en masse from Italy and Sicily, lived in ethnic enclaves, and for decades lagged behind the majority population in educational achievement, income, and avoidance of crime—before achieving financial parity as well as full assimilation and intermarriage. Since 1990, the number of poor Mexican-Americans has climbed 52 percent, a figure that skewed U.S. poverty rates. Billions of dollars spent on our own poor will not improve our poverty statistics when 1 million of the world’s poorest cross our border each year. The number of impoverished black children has dropped 17 percent in the last 16 years, but the number of Hispanic poor has gone up 43 percent. We don’t like to talk of illegitimacy, but here again the ripples of illegal immigration reach the U.S.-born generation. Half of births to Hispanic-Americans were illegitimate, 42 percent higher than the general rate of the American population. Illegitimacy is higher in general in Mexico than in the United States, but the force multiplier of illegal status, lack of English, and an absence of higher education means that the children of Mexican immigrants have illegitimacy rates even higher than those found in either Mexico or the United States.

Education levels reveal the same dismal pattern—nearly half of all Hispanics are not graduating from high school in four years. And the more Hispanic a school district becomes, the greater level of failure for Hispanic students. In the Los Angeles district, 73 percent Hispanic, 60 percent of the students are not graduating. But the real tragedy is that, of those Hispanics who do graduate, only about one in five will have completed a high school curriculum that qualifies for college enrollment. That partly helps to explain why at many campuses of the California State University system, almost half of the incoming class must first take remedial education. Less than 10 percent of those who identify themselves as Hispanic have graduated from college with a bachelor’s degree. I found that teaching Latin to first-generation Mexican-Americans and illegal aliens was valuable not so much as an introduction to the ancient world but as their first experience with remedial English grammar.

Meanwhile, almost one in three Mexican-American males between the ages of 18 and 24 recently reported being arrested, one in five has been jailed, and 15,000 illegal aliens are currently in the California penal system.

Statistics like these have changed the debate radically. While politicians and academics assured the public that illegal aliens came here only to work and would quickly assume an American identity, the public’s own ad hoc and empirical observations of vast problems with crime, illiteracy, and illegitimacy have now been confirmed by hard data. Ever since the influx of illegals into our quiet valley became a flood, I have had five drivers leave the road, plow into my vineyard, and abandon their cars, without evidence of either registration or insurance. On each occasion, I have seen them simply walk or run away from the scene of thousands of dollars in damage. Similarly, an intoxicated driver who ran a stop sign hit my car broadside and then fled the scene. Our farmhouse in the Central Valley has been broken into three times. We used to have an open yard; now it is walled, with steel gates on the driveway. Such anecdotes have become common currency in the American Southwest. Ridiculed by elites as evidence of prejudice, these stories, statistical studies now show, reflect hard fact.

The growing national discomfort over illegal immigration more than four years after “Mexifornia” first appeared in City Journal is not only apparent in the rightward shift of the debate but also in the absence of any new arguments for open borders—while the old arguments, Americans are finally concluding, really do erode the law, reward the cynical here and abroad, and needlessly divide Americans along class, political, and ethnic lines.

Thomas Sowell: All the 'News'?


Hugh, June, Wally and Beaver Cleaver

February 06, 2007

The latest in a long line of New York Times editorials disguised as "news" stories was a recent article suggesting that most American women today do not have husbands. Partly this was based on census data -- but much more so on creative definitions.

The Times defined "women" to include females as young as 16 and counted widows, who of course could not be widows unless they had once had a husband. Wives whose husbands were away in the military, or in prison, were also counted among women not living with a husband.

With such creative definitions, it turned out that 51 percent of "women" were not living with a husband. That made it "most" women and created a "news" story suggesting that these women were not married. In reality, only one fourth of women have never married, even when you count girls as young as 16.

While the data quoted in the New York Times story were about women who were not living with a husband, there were quotes in the story about women who rejected marriage.

What was the point? To show that marriage is a thing of the past. As a headline in the San Francisco Chronicle put it: "Women See Less Need for Ol' Ball and Chain."

In other words, marriage is like a prison sentence, complete with the old-fashioned leg irons with a chain connected to a heavy metal ball, so that the prisoner cannot escape.

This picture of marriage and a family as a burden is not peculiar to the New York Times or the San Francisco Chronicle. It is common among the intelligentsia of the left.

Negative depictions of marriage and family are common not only in our newspapers but also wherever the left is concentrated, whether in our schools and colleges or on television or in the movies -- most famously, in the "Murphy Brown" TV program that Vice President Dan Quayle criticized, provoking a fierce counterattack from the left.

The New York Times was not the first outlet of the left to play fast and loose with statistics in order to depict marriage as a relic of the past. Innumerable sources have quoted a statistic that half of all marriages end in divorce -- another conclusion based on creative manipulation of words, rather than on hard facts.

The fact that there may be half as many divorces in a given year as there are marriages in that year does not mean that half of all marriages end in divorce.

It is completely misleading to compare all the divorces in one year -- from marriages begun years and even decades earlier -- with the number of marriages begun in that one year.

Why these desperate twistings of words and numbers by the left, in order to discredit marriage?

Partly it is because marriage is a fundamental component of a social order that the left opposes. Moreover, marriage is seen as one of the social restrictions on individual free choice.

These are not new ideas, even though they may be more pervasive than in the past, simply because the intelligentsia is larger and more vocal today.

As far back as the 18th century, Rousseau said that man is born free but is everywhere in chains. In other words, the social restrictions essential to a civilized society were seen as unnecessary hindrances to each individual's freedom.

It never seems to occur to those who think this way that if everyone were free of all social restrictions, only the strongest and most ruthless would in fact be free, and all the others would be subject to their dictates or destruction.

Marriage and family are also barriers to the left's desire to create a society built to their own specifications. Friedrich Engels' first draft of the Communist Manifesto proclaimed the end of families but Karl Marx thought better of it and took that out.

In one way or another, however, the left has for more than two centuries tried to undermine families -- including today redefining the words "marriage" and "family" to include whatever kind of people want to live together in whatever way for whatever reason.

If "marriage" can mean anything, then it means nothing.

The New York Times' long-standing motto, "All the News That's Fit to Print," should be changed to reflect today's reality: "Manufacturing News to Fit an Ideology."

James B. Pinkerton: As time goes by, Reagan looks like a giant



February 6, 2007

Newsday

As with any historical figure, Ronald Reagan's reputation has been riding both the up escalator and the down escalator.

But it's interesting today, on what would have been the 40th president's 96th birthday, to note that Reagan is being increasingly praised by onetime enemies and increasingly criticized by ostensible friends - who at least call themselves conservatives.

For most of Reagan's life and career, the liberal/media establishment contented itself with phrases such as "right-wing cowboy" and "amiable dunce" to describe the Gipper.

But now, the judgment is changing. For example, Peggy Noonan, writing in The Wall Street Journal, quoted Leslie Stahl as admiring Reagan's "gallantry." Stahl, who covered Reagan for CBS News, certainly rarely had anything nice to say about him when he was in office. But in the nearly two decades since, even many liberals have admitted that Reagan's leadership succeeded in the Cold War against the Soviet Union and in the economic war against inflation and economic "malaise."

And now comes an approving book from John Patrick Diggins, well-known historian of the left, "Ronald Reagan: Fate, Freedom and the Making of History," which argues that Reagan "deserves to be regarded as one of our three or four greatest presidents."

Diggins lauds Reagan for ending the nuclear arms race and moving America away from welfare-state dependency, but then he takes his praise in a direction many traditional Reaganites might not agree with: "Far from being a conservative, Reagan was the great liberating spirit of modern American history, a political romantic impatient with the status quo."

The author is on to something. Reagan, after all, declared many times on the stump that Americans "have the power to begin the world over again" - not exactly a conservative thought. In fact, Reagan was a New Dealer back in the '30s and '40s; as he often said, he didn't leave the Democratic Party, the Democratic Party left him. So Diggins' book will make some conservatives uncomfortable - precisely because the author has articulated an additional facet of Reagan's persona.

But that's the way it goes with the great actors of history. On the occasion of Abraham Lincoln's death in 1865, Secretary of War Edwin Stanton declared, "Now he belongs to the ages." Stanton might have said, "Now he belongs to the historians" - who have been writing about Lincoln ever since. And so it goes, as well, for Reagan, who died in 2004.

Interestingly, many "friends" of Reagan have turned into ex-friends. One such is the prominent neoconservative Norman Podhoretz. As early as 1983, he accused Reagan of "appeasement by any other name" - this being the same year that Reagan announced the Strategic Defense Initiative.

But the neocons have their specific reason for disliking Reagan: They accuse him of being weak in the Middle East. The clearest statement of this view has come from Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, who said back in 2003, "The terrorists declared war on America ... many years before Sept. 11, 2001." She cited, among other incidents, "the attack on the Marine barracks in Lebanon in 1983, the hijacking of the Achille Lauro in 1985, the bombing of Pan Am 103 in 1988" - all of which occurred during the Reagan presidency. Yet, Rice continued, until the George W. Bush administration, "the terrorists faced no sustained, systematic and global response."

These days, of course, the wisdom of the Bush administration's "response" to terrorism - specifically, the Iraq war - is under, shall we say, close scrutiny. And so maybe Reagan's response doesn't look so bad in comparison. Nobody thinks of his Marine mission to Lebanon as a success, but at least the Gipper knew when to cut his losses.

So happy birthday, Mr. President. You've gone up to that Great Ranch in the Sky, leaving liberals to like you more and some conservatives to like you less. But this onetime staffer of yours - and forever an admirer - sees you as the gold standard for presidents.

James P. Pinkerton's e-mail ad- dress is pinkerto@ix.netcom .com.

Robert Spencer: Islamic Supremacy at the DNC

Imann Husham Al-Husainy leading a protest in Dearborn in 2004.

http://www.FrontPageMag.com

February 6, 2007

Many people in today’s Democratic party have contempt for religion, but they still have time for prayer. Last Friday, during the Democratic National Committee’s Annual Winter Meeting in Washington, Husham Al-Husainy, Imam of the Karbalaa Islamic Education Center, a Shi’ite mosque in Dearborn, Michigan, offered an invocation. As the assembled Democrats bowed their heads, Al-Husainy prayed:

In the name of God the most merciful, the most compassionate. We thank you, God, to bless us among your creations. We thank you, God, to make us as a great nation. We thank you God, to send us your messages through our father Abraham and Moses and Jesus and Mohammed. Through you, God, we unite. So guide us to the right path. The path of the people you bless, not the path of the people you doom. Help us, God, to liberate and fill this earth with justice and peace and love and equality. And help us to stop the war and violence, and oppression and occupation. Ameen.


A touching moment of ecumenical generosity and hope for peace? Not quite. In mentioning “Abraham and Moses and Jesus and Mohammed,” Al-Husainy no doubt sounded as if he was expansive, broad-minded, and not narrowly sectarian to the assembled Democrats. But in fact, he was almost certainly invoking them in their capacity as Muslim prophets: it is mainstream Islam that all of these were prophets who taught Islam, and that the followers of Moses and Jesus corrupted their teachings to create Judaism and Christianity. The Qur’an says that Abraham was not a Jew or a Christian, but a Muslim (3:67), and depicts Jesus denying his own divinity (5:116) -- and this, of course, is the Imam’s frame of reference. So what seems to be a gesture of ecumenical generosity actually amounts to a declaration of religious supremacism and the delegitimization of other religions.



What’s more, if a Christian priest or minister had prayed at a DNC meeting that those attending be guided away from the path of those doomed by God, the outcry would have been swift and shrill. Those whom God dooms? Hardly a concept that fits comfortably into today’s culture of non-accountability, but evidently it was acceptable to the Democrats when coming from a Muslim, although many of them would almost certainly been among the first to condemn the same sentiment coming from a Christian.



In this, in any case, the Imam was echoing the Fatiha, the first sura of the Qur’an and most common prayer of Islam. It asks Allah: “Show us the straight path, the path of those whom Thou hast favoured; not the (path) of those who earn Thine anger nor of those who go astray.” The traditional Islamic understanding of this is that the “straight path” is Islam -- cf. Islamic apologist John Esposito’s book Islam: The Straight Path. The path of those who have earned Allah’s anger are the Jews, and those who have gone astray are the Christians. The classic Qur’anic commentator Ibn Kathir explains that “the two paths He described here are both misguided,” and that those “two paths are the paths of the Christians and Jews, a fact that the believer should beware of so that he avoids them. The path of the believers is knowledge of the truth and abiding by it. In comparison, the Jews abandoned practicing the religion, while the Christians lost the true knowledge. This is why ‘anger’ descended upon the Jews, while being described as ‘led astray’ is more appropriate of the Christians.”



Ibn Kathir’s understanding of this passage is not a lone “extremist” interpretation. In fact, most Muslim commentators believe that the Jews are those who have earned Allah’s wrath and the Christians are those who have gone astray. This is the view of Tabari, Zamakhshari, the Tafsir al-Jalalayn, the Tanwir al-Miqbas min Tafsir Ibn Abbas, and Ibn Arabi, as well as Ibn Kathir. One contrasting, but not majority view, is that of Nisaburi, who says that “those who have incurred Allah’s wrath are the people of negligence, and those who have gone astray are the people of immoderation.”



Wahhabis drew criticism a few years back for adding “such as the Jews” and “such as the Christians” into parenthetical glosses on this passage in Qur’ans printed in Saudi Arabia. Some Western commentators imagined that the Saudis originated this interpretation, when in fact it is venerable and mainstream in Islamic theology.



It was also noteworthy that the Democrats continued standing with heads bowed piously while Al-Husainy prayed for an end to “war and violence, and oppression and occupation.” Occupation? In Iraq and Israel, no doubt. After all, according to Debbie Schlussel, during the Israeli incursion into Lebanon last summer Al-Husainy led “almost-daily protests of thousands of Hezbollah supporters on the streets of Dearborn and Detroit, swarming with swastikas and anti-Semitic, anti-American signs.” He also “delivered hate-filled, anti-American rhetoric” at “an anti-Semitic rally of 3,000 Hezbollah supporters at Dearborn’s Bint Jebail Cultural Center.” In August 2004, “he led anti-Bush, anti-American rallies on the streets of Dearborn,” and at other times “he led a number of pro-HAMAS and pro-Arafat rallies in the area.” At a rally honoring Arafat, “he and his followers held signs featuring enlarged photos of Khomeini.” He also has a taste for conspiracy theories: in an interview, Al-Husainy said of Saddam Hussein that “I believe he is an agent of America,” and attributed events in Iraq to the “Zionists”: “We also think some outsiders, with some Iraqis, and, by the way, I don’t want to exclude the Zionists. I think some extremists from the Mossad came in and took a chance to have some revenge, because we don’t know who killed [Imam Mohammed Bakr] Al-Hakim or Sergio Vieira De Mello, the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights.”



Of course, many of these ideas are mainstream among Democrats nowadays, so it is perhaps not surprising that Al-Husainy would have been welcome at the DNC meeting. The peculiar episode of his invocation is emblematic of the larger alliance between the Left and the global jihad – an alliance that may make the DNC’s conversion to Islam unnecessary, as the anti-Semitism and anti-Americanism of the jihadists is already abundantly in evidence among them. Perhaps this is a marriage of convenience for the Left, but, as the jihad continues to advance, it is one they will almost certainly someday come to regret.


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Robert Spencer is a scholar of Islamic history, theology, and law and the director of Jihad Watch. He is the author of six books, seven monographs, and hundreds of articles about jihad and Islamic terrorism, including Islam Unveiled: Disturbing Questions About the World’s Fastest Growing Faith and the New York Times Bestseller The Politically Incorrect Guide to Islam (and the Crusades). His latest book is the New York Times Bestseller The Truth About Muhammad.

Monday, February 05, 2007

Jay Mariotti: Can't Ignore Grossman's Shortcomings



Anthony McFarland sacking the Bears’ Rex Grossman, who lost one fumble and threw two interceptions.





Bears quarterback Rex Grossman walked back to the bench after throwing an interception, as coach Lovie Smith watched the play on the large screen, in the fourth quarter.

February 5, 2007

Chicago Sun-Times

MIAMI -- So, who's ignorant now? Rex Grossman called out the analysts who wondered why he throws hideous interceptions and fumbles simple snaps, then responded in his defining game by throwing hideous interceptions and fumbling simple snaps. When challenged to win a sterling silver trophy in the fourth quarter, Bad Rex played like he didn't belong. And if that's harsh, let me remind him it was the Super Bowl and that he may never return again.

While I might be ''ignorant'' about some things, I know you can't win a championship without a quarterback. That is especially true when Peyton Manning is cutting that meat, audibilizing and waving like a madman, confusing Brian Urlacher and punishing the defense with big downfield passes and handoffs and flips to robust Indianapolis running backs who softened the brawny, big-city defenders. In the end, the difference between experiencing a confetti tornado and becoming one of those quickly forgotten runners-up was that the Bears tried to convince us they had a real quarterback when smart people knew they did not.

Ignorant? Bad choice of words, Rex. Very bad.

''We had a chance to win the game, and we just didn't have it,'' Grossman said. ''I'd like to have the two interceptions back. I don't have any excuses.''

Good. Because he would have misfired on those, too.

We will remember these Bears for a nice season, but also for not backing up their smack in the roman-numeraled cojones test. Long live the 1985 legends. We sensed all season that this team was vulnerable and living a little too large, and its holes were exposed in a 29-17 loss to the smarter, more physical and better-coached Colts. Shut up already, huh? Grossman and Urlacher made brash boasts that seemed unnecessary and turned out embarrassing. It's beyond me why Urlacher took on the '85 Bears, basically saying he was sick of their grip on Chicago culture and wanted ''our own identity.''

Seems an apology is in order. This team was another heartbreaker, full of hiss and vinegar but ultimately full of you know what. As Manning the football scholar strategized and, I'm sure, sometimes teased the Bears with his barking at the line, Urlacher looked panicked, responding with his own pointing and gesticulating but rarely getting results. Manning ran a clinic, and the Bears lacked consistent answers. Maybe they would have had more with Tommie Harris and Mike Brown, but the evening seemed preordained for Colts coach Tony Dungy, a fine man who has endured hell and deserves a championship after so many years of falling short.

The criticism won't stop

Afterward, Urlacher and Grossman sat side by side in a damp concrete room. After walking slowly from the locker room with his head slumped, Urlacher answered questions softly at the podium and revealed watery eyes, looking devastated. Grossman tried to keep a stiff upper lip, but as CBS' Jim Nantz said on the telecast, he is going to take loads of national criticism now.
The last interception? ''It got away from me. It was about 10 yards to the right and maybe needed about 10 more yards,'' he said. ''It was a poor throw.''

The killer fumbled snap? ''It was a good snap. My hands were right there,'' he said. ''It kind of slid right out of there.''

Did the rain affect him? ''It was the same for both quarterbacks,'' he said. ''You won't hear me make excuses and say things like I'm a guy in his first full season. We're going to have a great team next year. If people don't see that, it doesn't matter.''

There he goes again, challenging ''people.'' When asked about his ''ignorant'' comment, he said he ''was just being honest'' and muttered something about not remembering it.

Most frustrating about a feeble offensive performance -- five turnovers, 11 first downs, 10 points after Devin Hester's smashing touchdown return of the opening kickoff -- was that the Bears were starting with great field position. Because the Colts feared kicking to Hester, they squibbed to upbacks. But one, two, three and out -- the Bears couldn't capitalize. The master plan was to run all night on the Colts, but except for an early 52-yard burst by Thomas Jones, the idea went awry, partially because Cedric Benson left with a knee problem. They needed the QB to win them a Super Bowl. He did not. Manning did, elevating himself to legendhood and retiring the gorilla forevermore.

''The quarterback has a lot of influence on a football game,'' said Muhsin Muhammad, who caught an early TD flip from Grossman but had only two more catches. ''His decision-making, his ballhandling -- all those things factored in the game.''

The talk coming in was about money: Lovie Smith deserving a fat contract extension, Ron Rivera needing bigger pay to keep him away from the Cowboys, even Grossman angling for a lucrative new deal. Smith will get his, but Halas Hall would be nuts to reward Rex and not open the competition to Brian Griese in July. When the fourth quarter called for efficient, dynamic leadership, the gunslinger just winged the ball foolishly. Earlier, with the game up for grabs in the driving rain, he suffered successive 11-yard losses, tripping over his feet on one play and fumbling the next snap.

To be fair, Grossman is a young player who never should have been in this position and had no chance in this mismatch. Also, the Bears went 56 actual minutes between offensive snaps, having to wait out the marksmanship of Manning and the halftime screams of Prince. And so much for the theory rain would favor the Chicago team and hurt the dome team.

The Bears had their butts kicked and their brains picked.

Which means -- gulp -- that Denny Green was right. We will not crown their asses.

Little help for Hester

And to think it started so magnificently. Hester walked calmly to the end zone before the opening kickoff, waving his hands to fans and pointing to the Bears logo on the ground. His turf, his team, his city, his Super Bowl? Adam Vinatieri kicked the ball near the left sideline, but it didn't deter Devin From Heaven. He cut back to the middle, instinctively flowed through a hole, blew past a diving Vinatieri and didn't allow a Colt to touch him until he was tackled around the ankles in the other end zone. As the stadium rumbled with Bearphoria, a replay showed Hester looking at himself on the Jumbotron as he covered the final 20 yards.
Alas, he had little help from his team.

The good news: A talented nucleus remains in place.

The bad news: Rex is an enigma. You hope he'll spend the offseason studying Peyton Manning tapes and not moping about critics who, it seems, weren't so ignorant after all.


Jay Mariotti is a regular on ''Around the Horn'' at 4 p.m. on ESPN. Send e-mail to inbox@suntimes.com with name, hometown and daytime phone number (letters run Sunday).

Bob Kravitz: Gritty Victory is a Dungy Milestone


February 5, 2007

Indianapolis Star

MIAMI -- They belong to Indianapolis, first and foremost, a hometown's proud and worthy world champion. But today, these Super Colts, dominant 29-17 winners over the Chicago Bears in Super Bowl XLI, belong, too, to history.

By late Sunday night, with a warm, cleansing rain continuing to fall at Dolphin Stadium, Tony Dungy became the first black coach to raise the Lombardi Trophy in victory. As it was once written of Joe Louis, he is a credit to his race -- the human race.

He not only shattered a racial barrier, but he proved that yes, hallelujah yes, good guys can still finish first, even in a sport as tough and brutal as professional football.

Even as Dungy stood at the very height of his profession, there was his son Eric joining his father for a snapshot as they stood together on a media podium. Eric gestured with his hand, noting the disparity in stature.
"Still taller than him," Eric said of his father.

On this day, though, nobody stood taller than Dungy, who, like his team, traveled a long and often painful road to this monumental day.

As Dungy spoke, Peyton Manning was across the way addressing the media. And no, there was no monkey being extracted from his back a la Steve Young. No talk of The Albatross. Reporters tried to roll out that question about validation, confirmation, whatever, and Manning was having none of it.

Good for him, anyway.

That's for the rest of us to consider in our spare time. Right now, he's in the middle of a Hall of Fame career, a Hall of Fame career that had its exclamatory moment Sunday.

"I don't play that card," he said evenly. "I don't play that game."

After all those close calls at the University of Tennessee, all those near-misses with the Colts, there is only one question for Manning, and it won't be asked until long after this team has properly basked in this wonderful result:

"How many will Manning and the Colts win before his career is over?"

The yeah, buts have been expunged from the Manning lexicon. He is a Super Bowl champion. And a Super Bowl MVP, even if Manning quickly acknowledged almost anybody on that team rated MVP mention.

Joseph Addai? Dominic Rhodes? Take your pick.

"Now it's time to party," safety Bob Sanders said boldly. "It's time to let loose."
You think?

Manning wasn't the typically dominant Manning, really couldn't have been with an insistent rain falling. But he didn't have to be, which is why you started to get the sense, especially after that Colts' beat-down in Baltimore in the divisional round, that maybe, yes, it was the Colts' time. Finally.

That's what was so tremendous about this whole championship run. The way this team, which was only supposed to go as far as Manning took them, won over and over again as a team.

All week, the story lines had centered on Dungy and Manning, two men who seemed to have so very much on the line, two men looking to cement their legacies, validate their professional lives -- even if neither was inclined to view this game in that fashion. Could Dungy get a team over the hump? Could Manning win The Big One, even if the definition of The Big One kept moving every 10 minutes?

And yet the story of this often strange and sloppy game -- this wet game -- wasn't necessarily Manning or Dungy, although both played a huge role in this victory.

Manning performed a rhapsody in patience. Dungy, cool as always, helped change the course of the game with an important challenge on a Marvin Harrison reception.

The story of this game, though, was the Colts' playoffs-long ability to run the football and stop the run -- and the pass, for that matter. They dominated from beginning to end.

Stopping Kansas City's Larry Johnson in his tracks.

Stuffing Baltimore's Jamal Lewis in the angriest road environment you've ever seen.
Coming back from an 18-point deficit, against New England no less, winning the AFC title in style.

And then coming here, to Miami, where it was sunny and gorgeous all week, only to have it rain in sheets. They not only played in Bears weather, they beat their opponent playing Bears football.

A couple of weeks ago, Dungy called one good defensive performance an aberration, two a coincidence and more a pattern.

"I think we've established a pattern," Dungy said with a smile.

They won this championship by doing it the old-fashioned way, by toeing the time-honored philosophical line about what it takes to win in the playoffs.
They ran and they stopped the run.

Simple game, isn't it?

What was remarkable, though, not just in this game but this entire playoff run, is the fact that the Colts essentially redefined themselves when the stakes got highest.
Two months ago, could you have imagined that the Colts' stoutness against the run would mean the difference between an early playoff ouster and a Super Bowl?

They didn't just win this championship; they reinvented themselves. They blew away every long-held stereotype that has attended their ascent into the NFL's elite. Soft? Hardly. Incapable of winning in the elements? No, sir.

"To go through the things we went through, I just feel complete joy," Dungy said. "We may have had better teams in the last couple of five years, but none of them were as ready to win as this. . . . To be able to out-play them at their game says a lot."

This whole remarkable experience -- and this will be a remember-when moment for every sports fan in the state -- was a testament to the power of faith. One year ago, yes, the Colts were dominant, maybe even better than this championship team, something Dungy suggested after the game. But sometimes, you have to go through more tests.

When it counted most, there was greatness, a champion's mettle. "We imposed our will," Rhodes said proudly.

The rain continued to fall hard as the happy night wore on, soaking everything in its way. But not the Colts' collective joy. And the Lombardi Trophy, the one being shared by Jim Irsay and Dungy and Manning and everybody else on that remarkable team? It had never shone so brightly.


Bob Kravitz is a columnist for The Indianapolis Star. Contact him at (317) 444-6643 or via e-mail at bob.kravitz@indystar.com.

Bob Ryan: A Satisfying Completion


Colts quarterback Peyton Manning was grabbed by Chicago tackle Tank Johnson while throwing a touchdown pass to wide receiver Reggie Wayne

Boston Globe

February 5, 2007

MIAMI GARDENS, Fla. -- Persistent inquisitors wanted Peyton Manning to tell them what they wanted to hear.

Manning would not cooperate. No, he kept saying, this had nothing to do with getting any animal off his back, be it a monkey or a parakeet.

"I have never played that card," he said. "I don't even know what that means. I'm just proud to be on this team."

They named him the Most Valuable Player of Super Bowl XLI, but was he? Did it make much sense to single out one Indianapolis player as being that much worthier than any other on a night when the defense absolutely embarrassed the Chicago offense and when Dominic Rhodes came off the bench to run for 113 yards?

No, it didn't. But the way it works is that somebody must be named the MVP and be given the keys to a limited edition, fiery red Cadillac XLR (as if America's Pitchman couldn't afford his own), and with his rock-solid performance in the rain, Manning was deemed that man.

So what can any critic say now? Peyton Manning will get his ring. He will not be his generation's Dan Marino, a passing machine fated never to have won the biggest of all football games, not that you really want to go there. "Dan Marino was a great quarterback," Manning hissed. "Any quarterback compared to Dan Marino should be honored."

Manning was not awesomely great last night (25 for 38, 247 yards, one TD and one INT), but he hasn't needed to be awesomely great throughout the 2007 postseason. Given the sorry regular-season state of the Colts' defense, the assumption coming into the playoffs was that Manning would have to put up box car numbers if the Colts were to have a chance of winning it all. But that's not the way it worked out.

For reasons no one can currently explain, the Indianapolis defense awoke, starting with the opening game against Kansas City. It was an aggressive, swarming, punishing defense and it peaked last night by holding the NFC champion Bears to seven first downs in the first three periods and one offensive touchdown in the game.

Manning was great in the second half against the Patriots, throwing for an outstanding 358 yards while directing his team to five scores, but last night he was only asked to be efficient. His one hiccup was a double-coverage Chris Harris interception on a first-quarter pass intended for Marvin Harrison. After that he was as good as a man could be in the relentless rain, taking precisely what the timid Chicago defense was giving him while making them pay a terrible price for a breakdown in coverage in the form of a first-quarter 53-yard touchdown pass to Reggie Wayne.

"That was a play we just put in this week," Manning explained. "It was an end bump route and I think they botched the coverage."

What Manning didn't say was that it was a pass not every quarterback could make. He was moving to his right under rare heavy pressure -- once again his line kept his white uniform very close to spotless with just one late sack -- and he was in a rusher's clutches when he unloaded a pass that had a sufficient amount of mustard. "I had to buy a little time," he said. "The guy had a hand on me."

His longest completion the rest of the game was 22 yards. He took the short- and medium-range passes the Bears were conceding, and he didn't get greedy. Most of all, he simply took good care of the ball -- not that he would accept the credit.

"The weather wasn't what you'd expect," he said. "You don't come down here thinking about playing in the rain. That's why it's great to have a center like Jeff Saturday with you. We've taken so many snaps together. [The Bears] had a little problem with that. They did not have that advantage."

He did not have to air it out because he had the two things every quarterback would want to back him up in a game of this magnitude. He had a running game (Rhodes and Joseph Addai combined for 190 yards) and he had a defense. Manning knew what to do with both.

Finally having a defense made him a different quarterback during these playoffs. "Certainly it does change your frame of mind because you feel like maybe you don't have to be quite as aggressive," he said. "Third down, punt to back them up in field position, is not the worst thing in the world."

He took great pains to avoid using the word "I," constantly saying how proud he was to be a part of this team and to be coached by Tony Dungy. "He's stood there the last couple of years and told us to keep our heads high and that our time would come," Manning said. "He said we'd be better off for our experience, but it's sometimes hard to believe it. And it was doubly hard the last two years because the team that beat us went on to win the Super Bowl. That was a tough pill to swallow."

He's good enough at basic math to know that now that he has one championship he's still two behind that guy in New England. "This is not the end," he said. "We want to be a better team next year."

And speaking of the Patriots, guess who left him a go-get-'em voice mail Friday? Why, none other than Bill Belichick, and don't think Manning didn't appreciate that. If he was ever bothered by that postgame snub two weeks ago, he's sure over it now.

At age 30, with a lot of tread left on the tires, Peyton Manning finally has it all. He has the passing records, he has the MVPs, and he now has his ring. He can always give the XLR to Eli.

Bob Ryan is a Globe columnist. His e-mail address is ryan@globe.com.

Dick Morris & Eileen McGann: It's Now a Rudy Romp


Giuliani: Managing to assuage righty fears.

The New York Post

February 5, 2007 -- UNTIL now, the status of front-runner in the Republican primaries for president was jointly held by Arizona Sen. John McCain and former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani. McCain is clearly no longer the front-runner. In the last week or so, Giuliani has moved out to a clear lead.

* McCain's latest fund-raising report, for the fourth quarter of 2006, was pathethic: He raised only $1.7 million and has only pocket change - $472,454 - on hand.

* A Fox News poll of Jan. 30-31 shows the former mayor jumping out to a significant lead among Republicans - 34 to 22 percent.

* A Gallup poll taken Jan. 25-28 shows Giuliani is better liked by Republicans than McCain -74 to 21 percent and more trusted to handle a crisis (68-20). Some 60 percent say Giuliani "better understands the problems of the average person," against 33 percent who pick McCain. By 58-34, America's Mayor is seen as the stronger leader.

Conversations with conservative activists also show a remarkable openness to supporting Giuliani - a belief that he can overcome (perhaps finesse) his pro-choice, pro-gun-control, pro-gay-rights and pro-immigration positions. Feelings seem bitterer over McCain's role in Washington battles - his opposition to the Bush tax cuts and his support for "amnesty" for illegal immigrants and for campaign-finance reform.

Giuliani has developed an effective parry to charges that his pro-choice stance would undo eight years of pro-life heavy lifting by the Bush administration. He's saying he'd oppose partial-birth abortion and work to continue to curtail Medicaid funding for abortion. More, he'd appoint judges like Justices Samuel Alito and John Roberts to the Supreme Court.

None of this means the race is over, of course. Even if McCain falters, some candidate would likely gain traction as the "true conservative" in the race. But who?

Massachusetts' former Gov. Mitt Romney is flailing, thanks to his flip-flops over the last decade on abortion (pro-life, then pro choice, now pro life again) and on gay issues. These reasonable concerns - and unreasonable bigotry about a Mormon candidate - may doom him.

Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich seems stalled in the low teens in the polls and not likely to move up.

So a dark horse will probably move up. These names are still obscure, but get to know them - lightning will soon strike at least one: Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee (our favorite), Kansas Sen. Sam Brownback, ex-Virginia Gov. James S. Gilmore, former Wisconsin Gov. Tommy Thompson and Reps. Duncan Hunter and Tom Tancredo.

If all the GOP's starters go on the disabled list, one of these minor leaguers may make it to the World Series by capturing the Republican domination. Of course, that "winner" will then have to face the Big Mean Clinton Machine - which in the latest polls is looking likely to clean the floor over in the other league.

George F. Will: Inconvenient Kyoto Truths

A little girl curiously checks a polar bear specimen displayed by university students to celebrate the Kyoto Protocol in a Beijing park February 16, 2005.

Was life better when a sheet of ice a mile thick covered Chicago?

Was it worse when Greenland was so warm that Vikings farmed there?

Newsweek

Feb. 12, 2007 issue

Enough already. It is time to call some bluffs. John Kerry says that one reason America has become an "international pariah" is President Bush's decision to "walk away from global warming." Kerry's accusation is opaque, but it implies the usual complaint that Bush is insufficiently enthusiastic about the Kyoto Protocol's binding caps on emissions of greenhouse gases. Many senators and other experts in climate science say we must "do something" about global warming. Barack Obama says "the world" is watching to see "what action we take."

Fine. President Bush should give the world something amusing to watch. He should demand that the Senate vote on the protocol.

Climate Cassandras say the facts are clear and the case is closed. (Sen. Barbara Boxer: "We're not going to take a lot of time debating this anymore.") The consensus catechism about global warming has six tenets: 1. Global warming is happening. 2. It is our (humanity's, but especially America's) fault. 3. It will continue unless we mend our ways. 4. If it continues we are in grave danger. 5. We know how to slow or even reverse the warming. 6. The benefits from doing that will far exceed the costs.

Only the first tenet is clearly true, and only in the sense that the Earth warmed about 0.7 degrees Celsius in the 20th century. We do not know the extent to which human activity caused this. The activity is economic growth, the wealth-creation that makes possible improved well-being—better nutrition, medicine, education, etc. How much reduction of such social goods are we willing to accept by slowing economic activity in order to (try to) regulate the planet's climate?

We do not know how much we must change our economic activity to produce a particular reduction of warming. And we do not know whether warming is necessarily dangerous. Over the millennia, the planet has warmed and cooled for reasons that are unclear but clearly were unrelated to SUVs. Was life better when ice a mile thick covered Chicago? Was it worse when Greenland was so warm that Vikings farmed there? Are we sure the climate at this particular moment is exactly right, and that it must be preserved, no matter the cost?

It could cost tens of trillions (in expenditures and foregone economic growth, here and in less-favored parts of the planet) to try to fine-tune the planet's temperature. We cannot know if these trillions would purchase benefits commensurate with the benefits that would have come from social wealth that was not produced.

In 1997, when the Kyoto Protocol's essential provisions were known, a "sense of the Senate" resolution declared opposition to any agreement that would do what the protocol aims to do. The Senate warned against any agreement that would require significant reductions of greenhouse-gas emissions in the United States and other developed nations without mandating "specific scheduled commitments" on the part of the 129 "developing" countries, which include China, India, Brazil and South Korea—the second, fourth, 10th and 11th largest economies. Nothing Americans can do to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions will make a significant impact on the global climate while every 10 days China fires up a coal-fueled generating plant big enough to power San Diego. China will construct 2,200 new coal plants by 2030.

The Senate's resolution expressed opposition to any agreement that "would result in serious harm to the economy of the United States," which the Senate correctly thought Kyoto would do. The Senate said any agreement should be accompanied by "a detailed explanation of any legislation or regulatory actions that may be required to implement" it, and an analysis of the agreement's "detailed financial costs and other impacts" on the U.S. economy.

The president is now on the side of the angels, having promised to "confront" the challenge of climate change. The confronting is one reason for his fascination with new fuels. (Another reason, he says, is U.S. imports of oil from unstable nations. Our largest foreign source of oil is turbulent Canada. Our second largest is Mexico, which is experiencing turbulence because of the soaring cost of tortillas. They are made from corn, which is ... well, read on.)

Ethanol produces just slightly more energy than it takes to manufacture it. But now that the government is rigging energy markets with mandates, tariffs and subsidies, ethanol production might consume half of next year's corn crop. The price of corn already has doubled in a year. Hence the tortilla turbulence south of the border. Forests will be felled (will fewer trees mean more global warming?) to clear land for growing corn, which requires fertilizer, the manufacture of which requires energy. Oh, my.

President Clinton and his earnest vice president knew better than to seek ratification of Kyoto by a Senate that had passed its resolution of disapproval 95-0. Fifty-six of those 95 senators are still serving. Two of them are John Kerry and Barbara Boxer. That is an inconvenient truth.

URL: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/16960409/site/newsweek/

Stanley Crouch- Black History Now: Demagoguery vs. Decency

The New York Daily News

5 February 2007

As we step into Black History Month, there is much the nation can learn about the complexities that face the black community by scrutinizing things that are happening in New York - some tragic, some noble, some naive and some the very definition of irresponsible.

First, there's the killing of Sean Bell in what appears to have been a Keystone Kops episode, in which 50 shots were fired on three unarmed black men. In the middle of all the anger and sorrow, Nicole Paultre, the woman Bell was to marry the day he was killed, carried herself with a dignity that so surprised Larry King that he asked her on his TV show why she didn't express the kind of theatrical anger that has become a cliché since the days of Black Power.

King had the wrong guest on his show. He should have brought on Charles Barron, a former Black Panther and a rabble-rouser of the most irresponsible stripe. Following the Bell killing, Barron spoke at a Brooklyn rally and proved himself an incendiary at best when he made an apparent attempt to incite violence against the police, saying, "We need to let the system know that they have to fear us."

Barron also deeply troubles black cops, whom he refers to as "house Negroes," or faithful slaves. Interestingly, Barron has made no similarly aggressive commentary about what community people should do to pimps, drug dealers, serial rapists and the sellers of illegal firearms. Without our cops, they would wreak much more havoc on the black community than they already do.

Then, just last week, Ronell Wilson, a young black man, was sentenced to death for the murder of two black undercover detectives in 2003. Men such as the murdered cops, of course, are of no interest to the Charles Barrons, the loons among us ever ready to make empty threats and spew endlessly divisive commentary. They remain intellectual blights on the black community.

Finally, in the interest of Black History Month and partially in response to the infamous tirade by supposed comedian Michael Richards, Council member Leroy Comrie has submitted a resolution to the New York City Council that calls for a "symbolic moratorium on the use of the N-word in New York City." Good luck.

Michael Richards is not the problem. The actual problem is the continual use of the word by black comedians and rappers, ever since Richard Pryor made it a basic part of his routine. Even the fact that Pryor himself came to think he had made a mistake could not stop the word's use from spreading, across racial lines, among young people. Congressman Charles Rangel has expressed the intention of drafting a similar resolution for Washington senators and congressmen to decide on.

These are the sorts of messes we can easily see these days, but it is important that we recognize what Sean Bell's intended wife represents. It is she who reflects the heart of the civil rights movement. She wants nothing less than justice and holds no malice toward the NYPD as a whole. She is too noble and mature to allow the worst blunders of a few to indelibly stain the majority. Having police officers in her family, she is too sensible to traffic in brutal stereotypes.

Charles Barron and all those like him need to follow her example. Don't back down, but rise above petty hysteria. That would give real meaning to Black History Month.

Originally published on February 5, 2007

Stanley Crouch is a columnist, novelist, essayist, critic and television commentator. He has served since 1987 as an artistic consultant at Lincoln Center and is a co-founder of the department known as Jazz at Lincoln Center. In 1993, he received both the Jean Stein Award from the American Academy of Arts and Letters and a MacArthur Foundation grant. He is now working on a biography of Charlie Parker.

Sunday, February 04, 2007

Jack Kelly: I Vote For Global Warming




Let's hope we're heating the Earth because it's going to get colder

Sunday, February 04, 2007

For the past two weeks the weather in Pittsburgh has been typical for January -- it's snowed almost every day. And for the first time this winter I've heard complaints about the weather at work. I heard none during our unseasonably warm December.

I note this to put in perspective the latest scare report on global warming from the United Nations. Average global temperatures could rise by 2 to 4.5 degrees Celsius (3.6 to 8 degrees Fahrenheit) by 2080 if carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere double, according to the summary of an upcoming report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. This could result in flooding in coastal areas and water shortages that could affect billions of people. And this is based on hypothetical piled upon hypothetical and computer models which cannot duplicate the actual climate of the present or the recent past.

There is no question the planet is getting warmer. In the 20th century, average global temperatures rose by 0.6 degrees Celsuis (1 degree Fahrenheit). Most of that warming took place before 1940, a fact which those who attribute warming chiefly or entirely to human activity usually ignore.

But the planet is always getting either warmer or cooler. The current warming trend began about 300 years ago, in the depths of the Little Ice Age (A.D. 1350-1900).

The Little Ice Age followed the Medieval Warm Period (A.D. 800-1300), when global temperatures were about as warm as the climate-change panel predicts they might be in 2080. In those days Greenland was actually green, and wine grapes grew in Nova Scotia.

Leaks of the panel's report coincided with publication of two books which link climate change to a long, moderate solar cycle.

In "Unstoppable Global Warming Every 1,500 Years," Fred Singer and Dennis Avery present evidence of 600 moderate warmings in the last million years.

In "The Chilling Stars," Henrik Svensmark and Nigel Calder discuss how cosmic rays amplify small changes in the sun's irradiance, creating 1- to 2-degree Celsuis cycles in temperatures on earth.

Sun spot activity has reached a 1,000-year high, said scientists affiliated with the Max Planck Institute in Gottingen, Germany, and the Institute for Astronomy in Zurich, Switzerland, in a 2004 report. More sun spots mean Earth will grow warmer; fewer mean it will turn colder. Solar radiation has increased by 0.05 percent per decade since the 1970s, concluded a NASA-funded study in 2003.

Alarmists attribute warming to rising levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. But CO2 accounts for only about 0.03 percent of the earth's atmosphere, and less than 10 percent of the greenhouse effect. Only about 14 percent of the carbon dioxide in the atmosphere comes from burning fossil fuels.

Dr. Habibullo Abdussamatov, head of the space research laboratory at the Pulkovo Observatory in St. Petersburg, Russia, says the alarmists have confused cause and effect. As solar radiation warms the earth, CO2 is released into the atmosphere from the world's oceans, he said last month.

There's considerable evidence of global warming on Mars, Dr. Abdussamatov said. Since there are no people on Mars, it's clear the warming there and here is due to the sun, he said.

Every change in climate has pluses and minuses. But for humans, warmer is usually better. The Medieval Warm Period was a time (mostly) of peace and plenty; the little Ice Age (mostly) of starvation and war.

As evidence mounts that it is the sun and not man that is responsible for global warming, the alarmists grow more strident and try to stifle debate. Al Gore canceled a long-standing interview with a Danish newspaper last month because he would have had to appear with Bjorn Lomborg, a former member of Greenpeace, but a global-warming skeptic. Heidi Cullen, an "expert" for the Weather Channel, has said meteorologists who disagree with her about global warming should be decertified.

In their efforts to capture public attention, some climate scientists have oversold global warming, said Kevin Vranes, a climate scientist at the University of Colorado.

"Some of us are wondering if we have created a monster," he told The Houston Chronicle.

If Dr. Abdussamatov is right, we'd better hope there is some truth to the man-made global-warming hypothesis. Solar irradiation has peaked and begun to fall, he said. This will result in a cooling period of about 50 years, beginning around 2012.

Jack Kelly is national security writer for the Post-Gazette and The Blade of Toledo, Ohio (jkelly@post-gazette.com, 412-263-1476).

George Will: Coaching Players For Life


Randy Shannon

February 04, 2007

The Washington Post

MIAMI -- Occasionally -- very occasionally -- a football person says something that punctures the fog of George Patton-style rhetoric that football people emit. Before a Super Bowl in the 1970s (the MCMLXXs, for those of you in a Super Bowl frame of mind), Dallas Cowboys running back Duane Thomas asked a subversive question about the game: "If it's the ultimate, how come they're playing it again next year?"

But most football people, and especially football coaches, are of the "Football Is Not a Matter of Life and Death -- It's More Important Than That" school of thought. However, when Randy Shannon, recently named head coach of the University of Miami Hurricanes, says that football can be a matter of life and death, that is not hyperbole, it is autobiography.

Shannon, 40, grew up in Miami's Liberty City, which is what sociologists and other refined thinkers call a challenging urban environment. Shannon was 3 when his father was murdered by one of his friends. "They had an argument," Shannon says matter-of-factly. Two of Shannon's brothers and a sister died, from cocaine and AIDS. By age 16, Shannon was a father. He could easily have been on a path to a prison or a cemetery. Instead, because of football, he went to the University of Miami and became the first member of his family to earn a college degree.

After a brief NFL career with the Cowboys, he went into coaching, and now he is hopscotching around the country recruiting high school seniors, many of whom think college football is a certain path to the NFL. "That," says Shannon, "is the mentality that has to change." Fewer than 2 percent of even Division I college football players will have NFL careers, and most of those who do will be out of the game by the time they are 30 -- the average NFL career lasts less than four years.

The Post's Amy Shipley reports that the University of Miami has more players -- 42 -- on NFL rosters than any other school. Miami's main rival -- the Florida State Seminoles (a T-shirt favored by Miami students reads: "I think, therefore I am not a 'Nole") -- is second with 41. The University of Florida ranks seventh with 35. But in the past 10 years, those three teams have had, combined, more than 1,000 players, all of them exceptional athletes but most of them not of NFL caliber. Which is why Shannon says that when visiting the home of a potential recruit, "I talk to the parents about everything but football."

On a recent day, Shannon was in the Palm Beach area recruiting a wide receiver and then was off to Omaha to make sure that a very large lineman was still eager to be a Hurricane.

Because South Florida is the incubator of so much high school talent (skill positions, Shannon says; for linemen, look to the Midwest, hence the Nebraska trip), during the off-season many NFL players come home to train at the University of Miami's facilities. Shannon says his players "see the fancy cars, the gold chains," so as he takes over Miami's football program, he plans to "come in with a stern attitude."

Stern adults got Shannon to the peak of his profession at age 40. A fourth-grade teacher told him, "You're very smart -- don't let anyone tell you different." A fifth-grade teacher, disapproving his choice of clothes one day, said, "Don't ever come to school like that again." When he was in junior high school, his football coach took the team to play a team in a juvenile detention center, a sobering experience.

Shannon's rules for his players include: If you miss a class, you don't start the next game. Fall below a certain grade-point average, you can't set foot off campus. A conservatively dressed man, with the elegant hands of a surgeon or pianist, Shannon wants his players to learn "how to respect life," so when "they leave the university and the football program, they will go with confidence." They will go, all of them, having taken a public speaking course.

Duffy Daugherty, who coached Michigan State from 1954 through 1972, was an aphorist ("Football is not a contact sport, it's a collision sport. Dancing is a contact sport.") and a realist. Because of alumni demands for football perfection, Daugherty said: "A football coach's main problem is that he is responsible to irresponsible people." Shannon, who like 80 percent of his players is African American, feels responsible to, and for, them.

georgewill@washpost.com

Thomas Friedman: Iran's Greatest Weakness May Be Its Oil



Lavan, May 16, 2004 IRNA -- Development project of Balal oil field in Lavan Island, in the Persian Gulf, was officially inaugurated in the presence of First Vice-President Mohammad Reza Aref and Oil Minister Bijan Namdar Zanganeh.



THE NEW YORK TIMES

February 3, 2007

MOSCOW – There may be only one thing dumber than getting addicted to consuming oil as a country – and that is getting addicted to selling it. Because getting addicted to selling oil can make your country really stupid, and if the price of oil suddenly drops, it can make your people really revolutionary. That's the real story of the rise and fall of the Soviet Union – it overdosed on oil – and it could end up being the real story of Iran, if we're smart.

It is hard to come to Moscow and not notice what the last five years of high oil prices have done for middle-class consumption here. Five years ago, it took me 35 minutes to drive from the Kremlin to Moscow's airport. On Monday, it took me two and a half hours. There was one long traffic jam from central Moscow to the airport, because a city built for 30,000 cars, which 10 years ago had 300,000 cars, today has 3 million cars and a ring of new suburbs.

How Russia deals with its oil and gas windfall is going to be a huge issue. But today I'd like to focus on how the Soviet Union was killed, in part, by its addiction to oil, and on how we might get leverage with Iran, based on its own addiction.

Economists have long studied this phenomenon, but I got focused on it here in Moscow after chatting with Vladimir Mau, the president of Russia's Academy of National Economy. I mentioned to him that surely the Soviet Union died because oil fell to $10 a barrel shortly after Mikhail Gorbachev took office, not because of anything Ronald Reagan did. Actually, Mau said, it was “high oil prices” that killed the Soviet Union. The sharp rise in oil prices in the 1970s deluded the Kremlin into overextending subsidies at home and invading Afghanistan abroad – and then the collapse in prices in the '80s helped bring down the overextended empire.

Here's the story: The inefficient Soviet economy survived in its early decades, Mau explained, thanks to cheap agriculture, from peasants forced into collective farms, and cheap prison labor, used to erect state industries. Beginning in the 1960s, however, even these cheap inputs weren't enough, and the Kremlin had to start importing, rather than exporting, grain. Things could have come unstuck then. But the 1973 Arab oil embargo and the sharp upsurge in oil prices – Russia was the world's second-largest producer after Saudi Arabia – gave the Soviet Union a 15-year lease on life from a third source of cheap resources: “oil and gas,” Mau said.

The oil windfall gave the Brezhnev government “money to buy the support of different interest groups, like the agrarians, import some goods and buy off the military-industrial complex,” he said. “The share of oil in total exports went from 10-to-15 percent to 40 percent.” This made the Soviet Union only more sclerotic. “The more oil you have, the less policy you need,” he noted.

In the 1970s, Russia exported oil and gas and “used this money to import food, consumer goods and machines for extracting oil and gas,” Mau said. By the early 1980s, though, oil prices had started to sink – thanks in part to conservation efforts by the United States. “One alternative for the Soviets was to decrease consumption, but the Kremlin couldn't do that – it had been buying off all these constituencies,” Mau explained. So “it started borrowing from abroad, using the money mostly for consumption and subsidies, to maintain popularity and stability.” Oil prices and production kept falling as Gorbachev tried reforming communism, but by then it was too late.

The parallel with Iran, Mau said, is that the shah used Iran's oil windfall after 1973 to push major modernization onto a still traditional Iranian society. The social backlash produced the ayatollahs of 1979. The ayatollahs used Iran's oil windfall to lock themselves into power.

In 2005, Bloomberg.com reported, Iran's government earned $44.6 billion from oil and spent $25 billion on subsidies – for housing, jobs, food and 34-cents-a-gallon gasoline – to buy off interest groups. Iran's current populist president has further increased the goods and services being subsidized.

So if oil prices fall sharply again, Iran's regime would have to take away many benefits from many Iranians, as the Soviets had to do. For a regime already unpopular with many of its people, that could cause all kinds of problems and give rise to an Ayatollah Gorbachev. We know how that ends. “Just look at the history of the Soviet Union,” Mau said.

In short, the best tool we have for curbing Iran's influence is not containment or engagement, but getting the price of oil down in the long term with conservation and an alternative-energy strategy. Let's exploit Iran's oil addiction by ending ours.

George Vecsey: Super Bowl Is a Passage to the Joys of Baseball



Many baseball fans are upset with the precarious status of Bernie Williams, who has reportedly been offered a minor league contract by the Yankees.


The New York Times

Published: February 4, 2007

It’s hard to look forward to a baseball season in which Barry Bonds has a job and Bernie Williams doesn’t.

But at least it’s baseball, coming down the pike. That’s the consolation for the cold wave that has hit the Northeast as we hunker down for today’s Super Bowl.

Football will seem a little less benign after recent articles depicting the dangers of brain injuries to pro players. It’s going to be harder to take when broadcasters chortle about athletes having their brainpans scrambled.

By other standards, this is not a bad Super Bowl, what with two civil coaches who don’t creep me out with authoritarian smugness, as a lot do in that sour profession. I loved the Bears when I was a kid in New York (after seeing Sid Luckman’s last cameo homecoming at Yankee Stadium), but that is balanced by respect for Peyton Manning, who has been a class act since he joined the N.F.L. So I will watch, like everybody else.

Gathering in front of the tube on Sunday in the autumn has never seemed more enjoyable than when described by David Halberstam in the introduction to “XL Super Bowl: The Opus.” I somehow missed the football revolution. Always had other things to do on Sunday afternoons. But I can relate to Halberstam, since I enjoy watching soccer from Europe with my pals and baseball with my kids.

As this Arctic blast bears down on us, everybody has different dates circled on the calendar for the warmer months — April 8: “The Sopranos” begins its final season. Somebody gets whacked. July 21: The final Harry Potter book is published. Somebody gets whacked. April 6: Mets at Braves. We will gather at my family’s Southern outpost and buy a bunch of seats in the grandstand and talk about Lenny Dykstra and Tommie Agee, and observe the locals with their quaint hand-chopping ritual.

Meantime, I can already hear the first robin of spring, Roger Clemens, warming up down in Houston, waiting to auction himself to the richest contender. It’s nice that the old feller can wait until June for baseball, but what about the rest of us?

A lot of baseball fans (pro-Yankees, anti-Yankees or just astute human beings) are upset at the precarious status of Bernie Williams, who has reportedly been offered a minor league contract. Williams is a top 10 in most categories in Yankees records, but he will surely be stuck in an awkward feng shui in spring training.

Does Joe Torre show Bernie the respect normally given to elders — allowing him to duck the long bus rides to Fort Myers or Kissimmee when the exhibitions begin in Florida? Does Bernie audition in B games and by playing the last few innings when the regulars are already heading for the parking lot?

Many good fans worry about the disrespect being shown to Bernie, but I have become pragmatic in my old age and I agree with the Yankees’ logic.

Bernie doesn’t run the bases or play the outfield as well as some kids making the minimum salary. In this age of specialists, the Yankees are going with 12 pitchers, leaving no room for National League-style pinch-hitters and double-switch substitutes.

Bernie does not want to go to the Pittsburghs and the Tampa Bays, the Last Chance Saloons of baseball. This can only be uncomfortable. So can the shaky mutual-interest détente in San Francisco, in which the Giants have decided to bring back Bonds for the spectacle of it — come watch Jo Jo the Two-Headed Man eat his twin suppers.

Essentially holding their noses, the Giants had to resort to a mass mailing to patrons to explain why they have offered a $15.8 million contract to Bonds, the aging superstar who has been pretty much exposed as an egomaniac with potential perjury or income-tax raps hanging over him in the wake of the Balco steroids investigation. Bonds is trying to hang on for the 22 home runs that would enable him to pass Henry Aaron’s career record.

Nobody is looking forward to that countdown. The Giants seem blatantly ambiguous about retaining Bonds, having barred his personal trainers — plural, for goodness’ sake — from the clubhouse and having included an escape clause in case he is indicted. Oh, sure, all superstars have that clause.

At last report, the contract was still problematic because the commissioner objected to language about personal appearances. Or because Bonds objected to the clause about possible indictments. Either way, the Giants seem to hope the whole thing dissolves because of a misplaced comma. No such luck.

With the surly Bonds and perhaps without the decent Williams, we will soon begin the hunt for yet another baseball champion, no team having repeated since the Yankees in 2000. Last year, the so-called World Series drew a worldwide average of 19 million fans during the fifth and final game, putting baseball seventh in big-event global viewership, according to Initiative Sports Futures, a Paris-based company.

The most-watched championship was, oh but you guessed it, the World Cup final from Berlin, with an average of 260 million fans at any given time. But the Super Bowl was second with 98 million. Not bad. Count me in. Got to do something until pitchers and catchers report.

E-mail: geovec@nytimes.com

Mark Steyn: What's so hot about fickle science?



February 4, 2007

Chicago Sun-Times

From the "Environmental News Network": "Science Is Solid on Climate Change, Congress Told." "The science is solid," says Louise Frechette, deputy secretary-general of the United Nations.

"The science is solid," says Sen. Dianne Feinstein.

"The science is really solid," says TV meteorologist Heidi Cullen. "The science is very solid."

And at that point, on "Larry King Live" last week, Richard Lindzen, professor of atmospheric science at MIT, remarked: "Heidi says the science is solid and I can't criticize her because she never says what science she's talking about."

Indeed. If the science is so solid, maybe they could drag it out to the Arctic for the poor polar bears to live on now that the ice is melting faster than a coed's heart at an Al Gore lecture.

Alas, the science isn't so solid. In the '70s, it was predicting a new ice age. Then it switched to global warming. Now it prefers "climate change." If it's hot, that's a sign of "climate change." If it's cold, that's a sign of "climate change." If it's 53 with sunny periods and light showers, you need to grab an overnight bag and get outta there right now because "climate change" is accelerating out of control.

The silliest argument is the anecdotal one: "You only have to look outside your window to see that climate change is happening." Outside my window in northern New England last week, it was minus 20 Fahrenheit. Very cold. Must be the old climate change kicking in, right? After all, December was very mild. Which was itself a sign of climate change. A few years ago, the little old lady who served as my town's historian for many decades combed over the farmers' diaries from two centuries ago that various neighbors had donated to her: From the daily records of 15 Januarys, she concluded that three were what we'd now regard as classic New Hampshire winters, ideal for lumbering or winter sports; eight had January thaws, and four had no snow at all. This was in the pre-industrial 18th century.

Today, faced with eight thaws and four entirely snowless Januarys, we'd all be running around shrieking that the great Gaia is displeased. Wake up and smell the CO2, people! We need to toss another virgin into the volcano. A virgin SUV, that is. Brand-new model, straight off the assembly line, cupholders never been used. And as the upholstery howls in agony, we natives will stand around chanting along with High Priestess Natalie Cole's classic recording: ''Unsustainable, that's what you are.''

As we say in the north country, if you don't like the weather, wait five minutes. And if you don't like the global weather, wait three decades. For the last century or so, the planet has gone through very teensy-weensy warming trends followed by very teensy-weensy cooling trends followed by very teensy-weensy warming trends, every 30 years or so. And, even when we're in a pattern of "global warming" or "global cooling," the phenomenon is not universally observed -- i.e., it's not "global," or even very local. In the Antarctic, the small Palmer peninsula has got a little warmer but the main continent is colder. Up north, the western Arctic's a little warmer but the eastern Arctic's colder. So, if you're an eastern polar bear, you're in clover -- metaphorically, I hasten to add. If you're a western polar bear, you'll be in clover literally in a year or two, according to Al Gore.

And, if you really don't like the global weather, wait half-a-millennium. A thousand years ago, the Arctic was warmer than it is now. Circa 982, Erik the Red and a bunch of other Vikings landed in Greenland and thought, "Wow! This land really is green! Who knew?" So they started farming it, and were living it up for a couple of centuries. Then the Little Ice Age showed up, and they all died. A terrible warning to us all about "unsustainable development": If a few hundred Vikings doing a little light hunter-gathering can totally unbalance the environment, imagine the havoc John Edwards' new house must be wreaking.

The question is whether what's happening now is just the natural give and take of the planet, as Erik the Red and my town's early settlers understood it. Or whether it's something so unprecedented that we need to divert vast resources to a transnational elite bureaucracy so that they can do their best to cripple the global economy and deny much of the developing world access to the healthier and longer lives that capitalism brings. To the eco-chondriacs that's a no-brainer. As Mark Fenn of the Worldwide Fund for Nature says in the new documentary ''Mine Your Own Business'':

''In Madagascar, the indicators of quality of life are not housing. They're not nutrition, specifically. They're not health in a lot of cases. It's not education. A lot of children in Fort Dauphin do not go to school because the parents don't consider that to be important. . . . People have no jobs, but if I could put you with a family and you could count how many times in a day that that family smiles. Then I put you with a family well off, in New York or London, and you count how many times people smile. . . . You tell me who is rich and who is poor."

Well, if smiles are the measure of quality of life, I'm Bill Gates; I'm laughing my head off. Male life expectancy in Madagascar is 52.5 years. But Mark Fenn is right: Those l'il malnourished villagers sure look awful cute dancing up and down when the big environmentalist activist flies in to shoot the fund-raising video.

If "global warming" is real and if man is responsible, why then do so many "experts" need to rely on obviously fraudulent data? The famous "hockey stick" graph showed the planet's climate history as basically one long bungalow with the Empire State Building tacked on the end. Completely false. In evaluating industrial impact, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change used GDP estimates based on exchange rates rather than purchasing power: As a result, they assume by the year 2100 that not only South Africans but also North Koreans will have a higher per capita income than Americans. That's why the climate-change computer models look scary. That's how "solid" the science is: It's predicated on the North Korean economy overtaking the United States.

Could happen. Who knows?

But that's the point: Who knows? You could take every dime spent by every government and NGO and eco-group to investigate "climate change" and spend it on Internet porn instead, and it wouldn't make the slightest difference to what the climate will be in 2050.

However, it would make a dramatic difference to the lifestyle of the "climate change" jet set. Which is why, even before latest new IPCC doomsday scenario was released, the Associated Press was running stories like: "New Climate Report Too Rosy, Experts Say." The AP's "science writer" warns that even this "dire report" is the "sugarcoated version." It's insufficiently hysterical, in every sense.

© Mark Steyn 2007

Tony Dungy: A Man of Grace



Tony Dungy: 120 career wins in 11 NFL seasons

Sunday, February 04, 2007

By Ed Bouchette, Pittsburgh Post-Gazette

Amidst the excitement and the preparations the Colts had to make last week for the Super Bowl, coach Tony Dungy picked up the telephone to call Pittsburgh.

Dan Rooney excused himself from another phone conversation to take the call.

"Tony called to thank me,'' said Rooney, the Steelers chairman today and president of the team when Dungy played and coached in Pittsburgh.

"That's all he wanted to do. He said, 'You guys gave me a shot; I was a free agent, you bought me in. You brought me back as a coach and then I got to be a coordinator.'''

That's Dungy, never one to forget those who helped him out, at the same time graciously overlooking what could have been his most humbling professional moment in coaching. He stood up for himself, turned down a demotion with the Steelers 18 years ago and it became a positive step in his career.

The Steelers went 5-11 in 1988, their fourth consecutive season out of the playoffs. Management wanted Chuck Noll to make some changes on his staff. Noll at first refused, then relented. Assistants were fired and one was demoted. Dungy had been the youngest defensive coordinator in the NFL and the only black in that job when Noll promoted him at age 29 in 1984. Five years later, Noll reluctantly asked Dungy to take a demotion to secondary coach. Dungy resigned instead.

Noll always thought Dungy had all the qualities to be a great football coach, most of all intelligence and patience.

"Chuck was impressed with his knowledge of the game,'' said Bill Nunn, the Steelers' legendary scout who became close with Dungy during their time in Pittsburgh.

The Philadelphia Eagles even interviewed Dungy for their head coaching job in 1986 before they hired Buddy Ryan.

Others, though, thought he was too nice of a man, that he needed to be tougher, that others on his defensive staff in Pittsburgh went over his head to Noll.

"He was soft-spoken, never screamed, never hollered at people,'' Nunn said. "I always thought that might have been a handicap to him."

It was, for that one moment in time with the Steelers, but Dungy rose above it and, maintaining that same low-key style, rose back through the coaching ranks elsewhere.

Kansas City hired him in 1989 as its secondary coach where he worked under coordinator Bill Cowher. He became the Vikings defensive coordinator in 1992 and Tampa Bay's head coach in 1996. There, he led the Bucs to the kind of success they had not previously experienced -- four playoff appearances in six seasons and a 54-42 record. In the 10 years before Dungy, the Bucs went 43-111.

But he was fired because Tampa Bay never reached the Super Bowl. He took over as Colts coach in 2002. Indy has been in the playoffs all five years under Dungy (60-20), but the same lack of success in the playoffs haunted him -- until now.

"I was really happy to see him get into the Super Bowl,'' said Nunn, 81. "It's a dog-gone shame, but there's always that group, that as long as a black guy's coaching, unless he gets to that point, there's always something wrong with him.

"I'm delighted, because really, what happened to him down in Tampa, I saw no reason for them getting rid of him down there. They went on and won [a Super Bowl] with his team.

"Like quarterbacks when they say he can't win the big one, so on and so forth -- I'm just happy to see him get in. He's the type of guy who really deserves it.''

Dungy has not uttered a discouraging word about his firing in Tampa Bay or his demotion in Pittsburgh all week. Indeed, he's referred to his playing and coaching days in Pittsburgh fondly.

"What if Coach Noll hadn't called me in 1981, what would I be doing now?'' he reminisced.

Noll and Dungy are not alike in coaching style, but Dungy often quotes Noll in many situations and uses what he learned under Noll in application, on and off the field.

Someone asked Dungy how his defense went from being the worst in the league against the run, allowing 173 yards a game, to 73.3 in three playoff games.

"I've always said, something I got from Coach Noll: When you struggle, do less,'' Dungy said.

Noll affected him in other ways as well.

"I was fortunate enough to work for Coach Noll, whose family was very important to him,'' Dungy said. "I saw that you could win and win Super Bowls and still place your family at a high priority ...

"Looking back on it, I can see how the Lord was really preparing me to be a coach. I went into Pittsburgh with coach Noll, they were in the middle of a championship run. I saw very quickly what a championship team looks like -- the things that you did, how coach Noll spreads fundamentals and just being the same day in and day out."

Dungy talked long and often about Noll here. Unfortunately, Noll was unable to talk about Dungy. Noll, who retired after the 1991 season, lives on the west coast of Florida with his wife Marianne. He has severe back problems that likely go back to his playing days with the Cleveland Browns, and through his wife has declined all interviews this week. Marianne Noll did say the two of them get great satisfaction from knowing Dungy's team is in the Super Bowl. Dungy was among Noll's favorites, even when he played safety for him in 1977 and 1978.

"Playing for coach Noll," Dungy said, "you can be very, very good at what you do and lead a somewhat normal life away from football and that was very important to my professional growth."

A good quarterback at the University of Minnesota, the Steelers first tried him at wide receiver but then sent him to safety. As a rookie, he famously intercepted a pass and threw an interception in the same game -- at Houston, when injuries pressed him into service as the emergency quarterback.

"One thing about him, he was a good athlete,'' Nunn said. "He goes over to the defensive side and Bud Carson ends up falling in love with him. He picked it up so fast -- in a week he was telling guys like Mel [Blount] and others how to line up and do certain things.

"Bud loved intelligence, and Tony proved himself as far as being intelligent. He really learned a whole lot from Bud Carson when he was with him."

Nunn, 81, has been around sports all his life, first as a college basketball player and later as sports editor of the Pittsburgh Courier before joining the Steelers fulltime in 1968. He compares Dungy's even temperament as a coach to only two others, both on the basketball court -- Lenny Wilkens and John McClendon.

"His maturity at a young age and his being soft-spoken -- he never screamed, never hollered at people,'' Nunn cited as examples.

"I've never known him to knock anybody. That's one of the things that makes him so unique. I think he's a special guy."

Nunn would not be surprised if Dungy does not retire after Sunday's game and never coach again. Back when Dungy was the youngest NFL coordinator at age 29, he often told Nunn he would retire by the time he turned 50. Nunn called him after his 50th birthday in October 2005.

"He said, 'What do you want?'" Nunn recalled with a laugh. "I said, 'I left the ballclub and I've gone back to the Courier and I'm writing again. I just want to get this story about your retirement.'

"He said, 'What are you talking about?' I said, 'You always said you'd retire by 50.' He laughed and said, 'I knew you'd remember that.'"

Tony Dungy rarely hollered or spit, and he never cussed, but even during those early days in Pittsburgh, no one forgot him.

He's a case of nice guy finishing first.



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

(Ed Bouchette can be reached at ebouchette@post-gazette.com. )