Monday, May 05, 2014

Putin’s plan to reclaim the old Russian empire


May 3, 2014
When I was a child and Soviet dinosaurs roamed the earth, a potato chip ad dared Americans “Bet you can’t eat just one!” That about captures President Vladimir Putin’s lip-smacking attitude toward his neighbors and any territorial snack that was ever “Russian.” Over time, he’d like to devour the whole bag.
What’s often misunderstood about Putin is that, while he pines for the vanished image of Soviet power, he knows that Communism didn’t work. Nor does he expect to re-establish the Soviet Union’s domination over Europe’s eastern half (as much as he’d welcome it). Putin has become a Great-Russian nationalist, a bigoted throwback to the days before the Bolsheviks arrived. His intent is to regain all the lands that once belonged to the czars.
When President Obama declared in March that Putin “has no ideology,” he betrayed his ignorance of both history and Putin. Who’s briefing this guy?
Putin’s ideology is nationalism, the only belief system that may have killed as many human beings as Marxism. And when a “post-modern” talk-talk America president faces a Russian leader who’s a man of action and whose concept of nationhood refers to the late 19th century, our cherished negotiations merely seal the deal on what Putin’s already taken (anyone really think he’ll give back Crimea and flee from eastern Ukraine?).
Obama talks, Putin kills.
And make no mistake, Putin truly believes he’s entitled to reclaim Ukraine and a great deal more. In his view, independent capitals from Warsaw (yes, Warsaw) to Bishkek are integral and natural parts of the Russian imperium. He regards them as property stolen from its rightful owner: Moscow.
The Putin Doctrine gives Moscow the right, in his view, to intervene wherever ethnic Russians or merely Russian speakers are “threatened.”
Here’s a look at the long-term framework in which Putin means to reconstitute Russia’s empire with “blood and iron”:
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The Baltic states: Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania

Like western Ukraine, these states are incontestably part of Europe, civilized, sophisticated and, incidentally, beautiful. But unlike Ukraine, they’re NATO members, a status that still serves as a deterrent to Russia. Putin would love to digest them, but even he’s reluctant to violate a NATO border — for now. But the coastline and ports remain attractive, as does the highly skilled workforce (Estonia may be the most “wired” state on the planet).
So what will Putin do? For now, he’ll exploit any opportunities to further divide the region’s Russian minorities from the indigenous majorities. And while Lithuania’s population is only 6% ethnic Russian (the Russian boot crashed down late), over a quarter of Estonia’s and Latvia’s citizens are ethnic Russians — and Putin’s invented claims that they’re abused.
Moscow’s playing a long game on this one, but, in the meantime, Putin doesn’t mean to let these states get too comfortable. For their parts, the local populations remember and hate what the Russians did to their countries — especially the Soviets.

Belarus

Hobbled by a dictator who knows he can’t afford to annoy Putin, Belarus, with its ethnic and linguistic affinities to Russia, is Putin’s when he decides he really wants it. Strategically, he owns it already, but without the hassle of paying its many bills. Only 8% of the population’s Great Russian, but the White Russian majority relates closely (“Belorus” means “White Russia”).

Poland? Yup, Poland.

The northeastern third, anyway, including Warsaw. The late czars ruled that stretch under one of the most cynical agreements ever wrought on the European continent. And Warsaw is, beyond question, a truly European city, a bridgehead to the West. Poland may be way down on Putin’s to-do list, but it’s there, NATO member or not. The bad blood spilled over centuries between civilized, European Poles and Russian barbarians (not least, the Soviet variant) has left some of the world’s most-profound hatreds. No country has suffered more injustice than Poland, and Russia has been the worst perp. As with Ukraine, for Putin this one’s personal.

Ukraine

Even in the three easternmost provinces currently under contention, ethnic Russians are not in the majority. But Putin is re-teaching the world the old lesson — which we’ve done our best to forget — that the fate of nations often isn’t decided by majorities, but by a determined handful of men with guns. Having seized Crimea with eye-popping ease, Putin is now beginning to gnaw at the rest of Ukraine.
He’ll take those eastern provinces when he’s ready, then expand along the Black Sea coast, building a strategic bridge to Crimea.
At his leisure, perhaps over years, he’ll snag the rest of Ukraine, too — including the far west that never belonged to Russia’s empire until raped by the Bolsheviks.
A key to understanding Putin is that he’s vengeful, a fiercely emotional man beneath his icy exterior, and he wants to punish Ukraine for derailing his initial plans. And we’ll let him do it.

Moldova

Putin will eventually want to connect Ukraine territory to the nuthouse pro-Russian separatists in Moldova’s breakaway “republic” of Transdniestria. Ukraine’s the main course, Moldova is dessert.

Armenia

Threatened by Muslim neighbors (yes, it was a genocide!), tiny Armenia, a fraction of what it was in its glory days, has long looked to Moscow as its protector and ally. If the dominos start falling in the Caucasus, Armenia will associate with Russia voluntarily — and gain territory from Azerbaijan for its loyalty. Few Russians, but plenty of ties.

Azerbaijan

Gas. Oil. Pipelines. Plus, Muslim (if liberally so). Azerbaijan serves as a pass-through for Islamist terrorists active in Russia’s neighboring and troubled state of Dagestan. Putin does not see yet just how to get it, but he certainly wants it — along with its southern border with Iran. Would the West stop him?

Georgia

Putin still has Georgia on his mind. When wrested from the Ottoman Turks over two centuries ago, Georgia became not only a vital outpost on Russia’s frontier but a loyal ally (and the birthplace of Josef Stalin). Outraged by Georgia’s new taste for independence, Putin has already dismantled part of the country through military action (and learned, in the process, that the West would do nothing but chatter). He’ll get around to the rest. Not many Russians left there, but Putin won’t care.

Uzbekistan

Putin would like to have it, but he just may decide it would be more trouble than it’s worth. As long as Uzbekistan toes the line and serves as a buffer north of Afghanistan, Putin may forego a second conquest. That said, Putin’s appetite could prove insatiable, and there’s a lot of history here. The daring, heroic Russian conquest of the savage emirates of Bukhara and Samarkand still resonates with Russians who know their history. Just when we were taming our Wild West, Russia was subduing its Wild East. And these are lands that conquerors have always found hard to resist.
Russians are under 10% of the population — and disliked, as I can personally attest, having been mistaken for one in a marketplace.

Kazakhstan

Even before he swallows the last of Ukraine, Putin is likely to turn east to Kazakhstan (before sparring with NATO over the Baltics). Almost a quarter of this vast country’s population is ethnic Russian, providing justification under the Putin doctrine — requiring only a few staged provocations — as well as a fifth column of agitators such as Moscow employs in Ukraine. Kazakhstan’s a tremendous prize, given its natural resources, the Baikonur space-testing ground, other defense facilities and a position that all but divides Russia’s west from its East. Kazakhstan will have even less capacity to resist than Ukraine, while the West will take even less interest in its fate.

Turkmenistan, Tajikistan & Kyrgyzstan

Turkmenistan has massive gas reserves, frontage on the Caspian, a border with Iran and 7% of the population is Russian —no doubt “endangered” in Putin’s mind. Look for Vlad to stir up trouble. Kyrgyzstan, also with 7% Russian population, already does Moscow’s bidding in important matters, so it might do as a mere satellite. Tajikistan is backward, raw, but useful if you have to deal with Afghanistan and parts south. Low priority for Putin, but he’ll keep an eye on it.

Ralph Peters is Fox News’ strategic analyst and a retired US Army officer who specialized in Russian affairs.

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